Why doesn’t Doyle and SEB score as many goals as the best in the Prem?

Kevin Doyle thinks that his old striker friend Ebanks-Blake will be back beside him against Hull on Saturday and I believe he is right. H e also talks about the lack of goals for Wolves in the Premier League so far to the Official Wolves site.

If we were scoring loads of goals, we wouldn’t be in the position we’re in. There are plenty of other teams lacking goals and that’s how it’s going to be if you’re in the bottom half of the table. That record just gives us something to aim for in the second-half of the season. We’re out of the bottom three so we’re doing alright. I’d hope we could get at Hull more.”

“But having said that, we played 4-4-2 against Wigan here and got beat, so you can’t be complacent in this league because it comes back to bite you and that’s what happened to us.

I’ve just written an article about strikers and goals (HERE). Is there someting wrong with Ebanks-Blake and Doyle as strikers? Why don’t they score as many goals as the best in the Premier? Is it them or the team tha doesn’t provide it for them? Can we find out about that objectively?

Well. I can get the Doyle and Sylvan data on shots, shots on goal and goals and compare them with the best strikers in the Premier and see what differs.

Doyle has shot 24 times on goal so far this season and missed 12 times. Not bad with double the amount on goal! That gives us 24/36= 67 % in the precision measure.

Ebanks-Blake has shot 16 times on goal so far this season and missed 9 times. That gives us 16/25= 64 % in precision.

It is very important to hit the goal if you want a goal. That was what that measure was all about. But it is also important to be able to score if you hit the goal. How many of the shots do Doyle and Ebanks-Blake score on of the hits on goal?

Doyle 5/24= 21 %
Ebanks-Blake= 1/16= 6 %

There we have the big difference between the two. Ebanks-Blake do hit the goal, but he doesn’t score. That is maybe the best way of putting this result to words. If we compare these results with the top strikers of the Premier we get:

# Hugo Rodallega, Wigan, 51/75= 68 % precision 18 % score on hits

# Nicolas Anelka, Chelsea, 34/46= 74 % precision 24 % score on hits

# Gabriel Agbonlahor, Aston Villa, 33/45= 73 % precision 35 % score on hits

Kevin Doyle actually has a result that comes close to the ones by Rodallega. He is even better than him when it comes to scoring on his hits on goal. And only one percentage from his precision.

The only really important difference is that Rodallega has launched many more shots than Doyle. Because of this Rodallega has scored seven goals this season. If or when Doyle launches as many balls at goal as Rodallega he will get at least as many goals as him. But not as Agbonlahor. He is different class both when it comes to precision and scoring while hitting goal.

But Ebanks-Blake suffers from lauching shots that don’t make it over the goal line. Why not? They could be too weak or being hit right at the goalkeeper. I think it’s a combination of both.

So to Doyle I would say launch more shots and the goal will come. And to Ebanks-Blake I would say that he might benefit if he hits the ball harder and don’t shoot at the keeper.



~ by paddytheflea on January 28, 2010.

6 Responses to “Why doesn’t Doyle and SEB score as many goals as the best in the Prem?”

  1. No shit sherlock!!!

  2. if football were all about absolutes I’d agree with everything you say, but it isn’t and probably owes as much to chaos theory as it does pure statistics, other than that you’re spot ion

  3. Paddy, I’m enjoying reading your blog; keep it up. Of course it’s more complex that just saying “shoot more” to doyle, it may be that he is not in a position to shoot as often as your wigan man, perhaps because he works so hard for the team in general.

    • Thank you, Bob!
      Yes, of course it’s more complex than that. Maybe Doyle is not getting enough of good crosses to work on. With a fit and in form Kights it might be another ballgame, as they say. Doubling the chances with crosses and attacks from two wings. Foley is not bad for a defender at the right wing position, but Kights and Edwards are soon back and both will deliver more to Doyle in my opinion.

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