Possession, shots and a common denominator – A little stats interlude

I’ve got a friend who have friends that keep telling him – when watching Wolves together on the telly – that Wolves does not play well and will struggle to stay in the Premier League – despite that Wolves did win the match they’ve just watched. How come?

It is very hard to look objectively at the performance of the team in your heart, so I thought about this for a while and decided to go to the statistics and look at some variables in matches played.

I looked at three things – shots, shots on goal and ball possession. I found only three matches this season in which Wolves are better than the team we have met at this. The matches against Fulham (2-1), Hull (1-1) and Portsmouth (0-1). In all other matches Wolves do not measure up to the other team on the pitch at this.

What does these three games have as a common denominator, then? Well. They are all played at home. And another interesting fact about them is the forward pairing. These are three of the five matches that Doyle and Keogh have played together so far.

That makes me longing even more than before for the recovery of Keogh. He is a creative player much needed in the team. The question is though – where should he play with our current formation? Or should he only play in some matches when we meet the teams around us in the tables and could afford a 4-4-2-formation? Or could he play on the wing and have the same impact? Interesting questions for McCarthy to have an answer to when – in the immediate future, please – Keogh is back.

The fact that the three matches that we were the team with the better stats are a win, a draw and a loss tells us – however – that these stats are not decisive for the outcome of a match. If they were Wolves would only have picked up nine points this season so far. But the team that have the better of the ball possession and launch many shots at goal are of course more likely to win the match.


Andy Keogh – Upwards in the tables when he comes back?


~ by paddytheflea on February 18, 2010.

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