Wolves have a better precision in scoring than Arsenal and West Ham

I have earlier tried to gather more knowledge about the precision of the strikers in the Premier League on an individual level. Now I want to investigate the precision of the teams. I have chosen the last seven i the tables in this study and I have looked in to the precision in shooting of Arsenal as kind of a control group from the higher echelons of the League.

As before (HERE) and (HERE) I use two different measurements to find out more about this. The ratio between shots and shots on goal and the ratio between shotson goal and actual goals resulting. I will express this in the actual numbers as well as in percentages.

The data comes from the teams 10 last games. The numbers are from the website Football-lineups. The teams will figure in the order they appear in the tables of the Premier League. Let’s go!

  • Team——–Shots—On goal (ratio %)—–Goals (ratio %)
  • Arsenal——–157——-54 (34 %)—————–15 (28 %)
  • Wolves———95——–28 (29 %)—————–11 (39 %)
  • Bolton———134——–43 (32 %)——————7 (16 %)
  • Wigan———131——–29 (22 %)——————5 (17 %)
  • West Ham—-157——–56 (36 %)——————-9 (16 %)
  • Hull————80——–26 (33 %)——————11 (42 %)
  • Burnley——-113———39 (35 %)——————-9 (23 %)
  • Pompey——-130——–35 (27 %)——————-9 (26 %)

Well. Let’s look into this data and try to get something clever out of it. At a first glance it looks just like a random spread of percentages and numbers. The teams does not have lower numbers of shots, shots on goal or ratios depending on where in the tables they are placed. And that goes – at least partly – for Arsenal as well.

I am a bit surprised. But we have to understand that there are many more factors in play to determine a teams success than these. The ability to defend – to mention one – of course.

Let’s start with Hull. Their data are sticking out from the others. Only 80 shots on goal – the lowest number of all – but still 11 goals in the last ten games – the same number as Wolves and best of all the ‘bottom seven’. If we look at their ratios, they are among the highest. One of three shots are on goal and 42 % of the shots on goal results in a goal – the highest of all teams.

Wolves have 15 more shots than Hull, but our precision – our ability to place the shots on goal – is slightly lower than Hull’s. And though we have a very good shots on goal to goal ratio Hull is slightly better at this as well. But thanks to those 15 more shots at goal we end up with the same amount of goals as Hull.

But all other teams shoot much more than Hull and Wolves. And half of them are better at placing their shots on goal. But when it comes to score on the chances that are on goal Wolves and Hull are outstanding. Even Arsenal have a much lower percentage in shots on goal to goal ratio.

Wigan is the team with the worst ‘combined precision’ of all (22+17=39 %). Only five goals in the last 10 games means that they have to defend very well to gather any points. And they seem to accomplish this in some games as they have three clean sheets in the ten last games.

Hull and Wolves have the best combined precision with 75 and 68 % respectively. But – as said above – Hull and Wolves do not launch as many shots as the other teams so we can not take advantage enough of our skills and precision.

Arsenal and West Ham are surprises to me. They launch the same amount of shots, 157 – more than any other team by far – and their precision at hitting the goal is also among the best. But when it comes to scoring they do not impress at all. Especially not West Ham – and Wolves have a much better on goal-scoring ratio than the mighty Arsenal.

Enough said about the numbers. What conclusions could we draw from these figures. What shall Wolves do to get more goals and win more matches? Could we say anything about this from these stats?

Well. The thing about Wolves (and Hull) is that we show great precision in our finishes. But we don’t shoot enough. Simple as that on a theoretical level, but probably not so easy when it comes to changing it.

The reason for not launching enough shots are probably manifold and combined in a chain. And they are not really derived from these figures, to be honest – but by my own observations and deductions from the matches I’ve seen.

1. We don’t get into the positions to shoot often enough (derived from the stats above).
2. We don’t get into the positions often enough because we don’t have the power to get through the opposition defences.
3. We don’t get through these defences because we are not going forward with enough force and/or speed and/or enough players.
4. We are not going forward with enough players because we have to think about defence firsthand.

We are not going forward with enough force/speed because the play is halted in midfield to often. We use to many passes to go forward and up the field and when we reach the area the opposition is – unfortunately – well assembled to defend.

Against West Ham we could see how well we could penetrate an opposition defence by only three passes. That happened on the last two of our goals. The defence of West Ham did not get the time to organize and they were to few to mark our players properly.

I believe that is the way to go about it. To give us more chances to shoot – get shots at goal – and to score – without compromising our defence. But something to admire is of course the precision that Wolves shows. A precision that is better than that of our next opponents – Arsenal.


P.S. I would very much like if you look at the stats and draw your own conclusions from them and write them down in comments. Maybe you will find other angles and surprising conclusions and solutions on how to make Wolves a better team. We can all be managers. At least in our minds. 😆

~ by paddytheflea on March 30, 2010.

2 Responses to “Wolves have a better precision in scoring than Arsenal and West Ham”

  1. The only thing I’ll like to comment are the amount of matches you’ve made the comparison by. Ten matches are too few, because who one plays against and their form affects the result.

    • That could maybe get another result, Karl De Wolf, but many stats sites only uses data from six matches, so mine are slightly more reliable in that sense. It would be intereting to separate home and away games as well. For Wolves that may not make much of a difference, as we – unlike most teams have performed equally well home and away, but most teams behave very different at home to away.

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